Analysis Annual Report 2010 Bayer Essay Example for Free

Analysis Annual Report 2010 Bayer Essay Profitability Which indicators have been brought forward in the annual report of the company? Which specific targets are aimed at? How does the group state and assess the evolution of profitability in the annual report? Is there more recent public information about this issue? Where? Is this information in line with the one mentioned in the annual report? Is it indicating a similar evolution? What are the main propositions of the company to improve its profitability? Financing What is the global financing strategy of the group? What is the evolution of the financing cost (several indicators)? What is the shareholders’ remuneration program? What are your sources (of information) regarding this issue? Investments What are the main investment / disinvestment policies? How are these investments financed? What is the outlook of the company regarding this issue? Consolidation process What are the most important consolidated subsidiaries? (Eventually mention the approximate number of subsidiaries)? Are there associated companies? What is the evolution of the income attributable to shareholders (or result part of the group)? What are the comments of the company regarding this issue? What kind of indicators does the company report about shareholder value? Are those indicators compared with other information? International standards Does the group announce the non-publication of some standards? If yes, for which reasons? Among explanatory notes associated with the consolidated accounts, choose one that is relative to a specific standard. For this note, report essential characteristics that highlight the differences in terms of recording and reporting in the relation to Belgian GAAPs. What is the impact of IAS/IFRS referential (if any) on the account that is concerned by this note? Global diagnostic Is there important recent information about this company? Would you invest in this company? Why? Business sector What is the main business of the group? Firstly, we have to know that Bayer was founded in Barmen, Germany in 1963 by Friedrich Bayer and Johann Friedrich Weskott his partner. It is a global and an inventor company with core competencies in the domain of health care, nutrition and high-tech materials. They produce and provide services to benefit people and improve their quality of life. In addition, they seek to create value with the help of innovation, growth and high earning power. For them, sustainability is very important for their social and ethical responsibilities. Its headquarters are in Leverkusen. This is one of the largest phamarceutical companies in the world and has three sebgroups: Bayer CropScience, Bayer HealthCare and Bayer MaterialScience. Led by the management holding company, they also have three services companies which operate independently: Bayer Business Services, Bayer Technology Services and Currenta. Are there other activities, complementary businesses within the group? Bayer CropScience has products in crop protection and nonagricultural pest control. It also has activities in seeds and plant traits. Bayer HealthCare is Bayers pharmaceutical and medical products subgroup. It is involved in the research, development, manufacture and marketing of products. It comprises a further four subdivisions: Bayer Schering Pharma, Bayer Consumer Care, Bayer Animal Health and Bayer Medical Care. Bayer MaterialScience is a supplier of high-tech  ­polymers, and develops solutions for a broad range of applications relevant to everyday life. Bayer Business Services located at the Bayer USA Headquarters in Pennsylvania. It handles the information technology infrastructure and technical support aspect of Bayer Canada and USA. Bayer Technology Services is engaged in process development and in process and plant engineering, construction and optimization. Currenta offers services for the chemical industry, including utility supply, waste management, infrastructure, safety, security, analytics and vocational training. What are the main groups competitors? The main group’s competitors are Merck Co, GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer and Sanofi Aventis. Indeed, GlaxoSmithKline have the second post in the pharmaceuticals world just behind Pfizer. Sanofi Aventis is in fourth place and Merck Co and Bayer share the third place. Which main risks (that are inherent to this business sector) does the company mention? Which hedging policies are put in place? Business operations necessarily involve risks. So according to Bayer, effective management of risks is a key factor in sustainably safeguarding a company’s value. Risks are assessed both qualitatively and quantitatively in determining strategies of the strategic business entities. The risk management system is set on the Group Intranet. Directive published explains the basic principles of this management in accordance with German Law.According to Bayer Group, the definition of the risk is represented by events and possible developments within or outside of the group that would decrease the value of the company. These risks are described as follows: Legal risksBayer Group is exposed to numerous legal risks from legal disputes or proceedings to which they are currently a party †¦ So it is therefore possible that legal or regulatory judgments could significantly affect the revenues and earnings of the company.Industry-specific risksSome governments intervene directly in setting prices and the government reimbursement systems favoring less expensive generic pharmaceuticals over brand-name products, which diminish earnings from Bayer’s pharmaceutical products and could potentially render the market introduction of a new product unprofitable. So if it necessary, Bayer’s Group adjusts his business plans according to the significance of governmental intervention. Sales of the Group are subject to seasonal fluctuations and CropScience business particularly affected by weather conditions. Moreover the early identification of trends in the economic market is important elements of the Bayer’s Group business management. Finally where it appears strategically advantageous they may acquire a company or part of a company and combine it with their existing business. The integration processes associated with their acquisitions are steered by integration teams. Appropriate resources are provided to support the integration processes.Product development risksThe Group’s competitive position, sales and earnings depend significantly on the development of commercially viable new products and technologies’ production. So they therefore devote substantial resources to research and development. Furthermore it is possible that effects of their products may be discovered after regulatory approval or registration. So litigations and associated claims for damages due to negative effects can materially diminish their earnings.Regulatory risksOur life science businesses, in particular are subject to strict regulatory regimes relating to the testing, manufacturing and marketing of many of our products. In some countries regulatory controls have become increasingly demanding like in the USA or in EU. That may increase product development costs. So Projects have been initiated to coordinate the implementation of new regulatory controls and mitigate any negative implications for the business. Patent risksA large proportion of Bayer’s products is protected by patents. When a patent defense is unsuccessful, or if one of our patents expires, our prices are likely to come under pressure because of increased competition from generic products entering the market. The legal department, in conjunction with the relevant functional departments, regularly reviews the patent situation. Potential infringements of Bayer’s patents by other companies are carefully monitored so that legal action can be taken if necessary. Production, procurement market and environmental risksProduction capacities at some of their manufacturing facilities could be adversely affected by, for instance, technical failures, natural disasters †¦ This applies particularly to the biotech products because of the highly complex manufacturing processes. If in such cases they are unable to meet demand they may suffer declines in sales revenues. So they address product and environmental risks by way of suitable quality assurance measures. In addition, they are committed to the international Responsible Care initiative of the chemical industry. IT risksMajor disruptions or failure of global or regional business systems may result in loss of data and impairment of business and production processes. As a consequence technical precautions such as data recovery and continuity plans have been established together with the internal it service provider to address this risk. Risk to pension obligations from capital market developmentsThe Bayer Group has obligations to current and former employees related to pensions and other post-employment benefits. Changes in relevant valuation parameters such as interest rates, mortality and rates of increases in compensation may raise the present value of the pension obligations. This may lead to increased pension costs or diminish stockholders’ equity. Financial risksIn this part we are speaking about the management of financial and commodity price risks. As a global enterprise, Bayer is exposed in the normal course of business to credit risks, liquidity risks and various market price risks that could materially affect its net assets, financial position and results of operations. The various risks associated with financial instruments are outlined below together with the relevant risk management systems. In this risk there is a lot of subcategories: Credit risks: arise from the possibility of the value of receivables or other financial assets being impaired because counterparties cannot meet their payment or other performance obligations. To effectively manage the credit risks from trade receivables, Bayer has put in place a standardized risk management system Credit limits are set for all customers. Finally to minimize credit risks, financial transactions are only conducted with banks and other partners of first-class credit standing in line with predefined exposure limits. Liquidity risks: arise from the possibility of not being able to meet current or future payment obligations because insufficient cash is available. Those problems are centrally managed in the Bayer Group. Sufficient liquid assets are held to meet all of the Group’s payment obligations when they fall due, thereby ensuring solvency at all times. The size of this reserve is regularly reviewed and adjusted as necessary to current conditions. Then credit facilities also exist with banks. Markets risks: relate to the possibility that the fair value or future cash flows of financial instruments may fluctuate due to variations in market prices. Market risks include currency, interest rate and other price risks, especially commodity price risks. Currency risks: since the Bayer Group conducts a significant portion of its operations outside the euro zone, fluctuations in currency exchange rates can materially affect earnings. Currency risks are identified, analyzed and managed centrally and systematically. The scope of hedging is evaluated regularly and defined in a corporate directive. Then a significant proportion of contractual and foreseeable currency risks is hedged, mainly through forward exchange contracts and currency options. Interest rate risks: The Bayer Group’s interest rate risks arise primarily from financial assets and liabilities with maturities exceeding one year. Interest rate risks in the Group are analyzed centrally and managed by the central finance department. This is done in line with the duration set by the Board of Management, which implicitly also includes the ration of fixed-rate to floating-rate debt. Then the duration is subject to regular review. Other price risks (especially price risks): The Bayer Group requires significant quantities of petrochemical feed stocks and energy for its various production processes. The prices of these inputs may fluctuate considerably depending on market conditions. This applies particularly tothe MaterialScience business. They have addressed this risk by concluding long-term contracts with multiple suppliers. The operation of their production facilities requires large amounts of energy, mostly in the form of electricity and steam. To minimize the exposure to energy price fluctuations, they aim for a balanced diversification of fuels for steam production and a mix of external procurement and captive production for power generation. As we can see the overall risk assessment is based on a consolidated view of risk each. There were no risks identified may endanger the existence of the group in 2010. And this is the continuation of the previous year. Profitability Which indicators have been brought forward in the annual report of the company? Which specific targets are aimed at? The profitability of a company makes the relationship between the results obtained by the company and the means used to achieve this result. The result of a business can be estimated thanks to different criterion, such as:Operating income: Which one measures the earnings generated from the production activity of the company? The profit of the year: Which measures the net result of the company, when expenses and benefits have been taken into account? The Value Added: which measures the wealth created thanks to the production function of the company? Similarly, the means used by a business can be measured by:The total of assets: this corresponds to the measurement of assets used by the company to produce. The equity: measurement of all financial resources used to produce starting. Capital stock: it is all the financial resources made available to the company by shareholders. We must not forget that a business can be profitable but still have a lower profitability of its sector. That’s why its profitability should be compared with the one of its main competitors. Thus a possible lack of competitiveness could be detected. There are 3 kind of profitability: Return on business ; Return on assets ; Return on equity. The profitability indicators highlighted by the Bayer Group in its annual report are the following: EBIT (before special items) EBITDA (before special items); Cash flow return on investment ; Earnings per share ; ROE (return on equity); ROA (return on assets). So concerning specific targets we believe that shareholders, investors and potential investors, suppliers and staff are the key audiences that are intended profitability indicators. How does the group state and assess the evolution of profitability in the annual report? Is there more recent public information about this issue? Where? Is this information in line with the one mentioned in the annual report? Is it indicating a similar evolution? The group assesses its profitability by focusing on the various indicators mentioned above. In its annual report, the group highlights a number of indicators of profitability, which are: EBIT EBITDAThese indicators are reported in order to allow a more accurate assessment of business operations. The company considers EBITDA before special items to be a more suitable indicator of operating performance since it is not affected by depreciation, amortization, impairments or special items. By reporting this indicator, the company aims to give readers a clearer picture of the results of operations and ensure greater comparability of data over time. EBIT for 2010 came in at â‚ ¬ 2,730 million whereas it was â‚ ¬ 3,006 million in 2009. This decrease is due to several factors that are: Sales of the Bayer Group rose by 12.6% from the previous year to â‚ ¬35,088 million; in 2009 the amount was â‚ ¬31,168 million, thanks largely to the recovery in the Material Science business. Adjusted for currency and portfolio effects, sales grew by 8.0% ; The cost of goods sold advanced by 13.0% to â‚ ¬17,103 million. This was mainly due to a considerable increase at MaterialScience, which in turn resulted chiefly from the growth in volumes and higher average raw material prices for the year. The ratio of the cost of goods sold to total sales was 48.7%, this ratio increased by 0, 1%, it was 48, 6% in 2009. Selling expenses rose by 11.1% year on year to â‚ ¬8,803million, it was â‚ ¬7,923million in 2009, and were thus equivalent to 25.1% of sales. Health Care accounted for the greater part of the increase. The group raised their research and development expenses in 2010 by a further 11.2%,the amount increased from â‚ ¬2,746million in 2009 to â‚ ¬3,053million in 2010;

Strategic approach to entering a new international market

Strategic approach to entering a new international market It is an international marketing planning assignment where I am supposed to launch a product in the foreign market and I have selected UK as my market and Dabur Real juice is my product which I will be introducing in UK. INTERNATIONAL MARKETING PLANNING According to the American Marketing Association (AMA) international marketing is the multinational process of planning and executing the conception, pricing, promotion and distribution of ideas, goods, and services to create exchanges that satisfy individual and organizational objectives THE ANALYSIS: Dabur is the fourth Fast Moving Consumer Goods company in India. Dabur was established in 1884. This Company is giving an excellent performance since 125 years. Dabur has more than 300 products.( www.dabur.com) but the main product of this company is Dabur- Ayurvedic health care products, Vatika-premium hair care, Hajmola-tastey digestives, Real fruit juices and beverages, Fam-fairness bleaches skin care products. It has expended their products in various countries that includes Middle East, North West Africa, EU and the US with its brands Dabur Vatika. had a turnover of approximately US$ 750 Million Market Capitalisation of over US$ 3.5 Billion with brands like Dabur Amla, Dabur Chyawanparas, Vatika, Hajmola and . The company has kept an eye on new generations of consumers with arrange of products that cater to a modern life style while managing no to alienate earlier generation of loyal costumers the companies growth rate rose from 10% to 40%. The expected growth rate for two years was to fold. Dabur foods a subsidiary of Dabur India is expecting to grow at 25%. Its brands of juices namely and active together make it a market leader in fruit juice category. (The Economic Times, www. Dabur.com) According to the above data the market of fruit juice and juice drinks in UK is still has vast market after recession , the sales of fruit juice was 1189 m litres in 2005 but after gradually declining, sales was 1159 m litres in 2009, which is also a good quantity. There is a good chance for Dabur real juice for success in this market. The fruit juice and juice drink market is valued at Pound 3.1 billion in 2009 and while both volumes and value have grown in recent years. (oxygen .mintel.com) Britain now consumes 2.2 billion litres of juice drinks a year around 36 litres for every man, woman and child.(news.bbc.co.uk). This figure shows the future growth of product one it make the goodwill after establishment. UK food market is one of the highly regulated food markets in the world and it is hard for any company to launch a new food product in the UK market. On top of that the existing intense competition by leading corporations selling juice products such as Pepsi Co and Coca Cola made it hard for other brands to enter into UK juice-consumer market. Tropicana is the no.1juice in UK. Tropicana makes the juices and smoothies from the highest quality of fruit, expertly blended. It contain 100% juice no added water.(www.pepsico.co.uk) On the other hand, it represents a unique opportunity for a multinational company to enter such market with a differentiated product attracting a specific customer-base which is spread all over United Kingdom. Dabur, the multi-national company, based in India is one of the oldest Fast Moving Consumer Good company selling range of products to its customers since 1885. It operates in 8 countries worldwide including United Kingdom but selling only limited number of products outside India. Due to its multinational nature and have number of years experience in international trading, it puts the company in the unique place to launch its juice products in the United Kingdom. There are many competitors in the market for new products which has mentioned in above data, in which PepsiCo, princes, Del monte has strong hold over the market.The organisation already sells some of its health products in Britain so already possess UK consumer experience. The UK juice market is competitive in its nature with leading brands established such as Tropicana and Copella. But there is a huge market potential to attract those customers who have some kind of connection with Indian sub-continent and are loyal to the products originated from that continent. TARGET MARKET The target market of my product would be south of London because the majority of Indian people are living there and they already know about the brand, there is a possibility to sale product among the Indian origin people, afterward we will launch the product in all over London. The number of residents in UK according to office of national statistics exceeds 3 million which are spread all over the country hence making an ideal position for a leading company like Dabur to launch its juice brand . According to Dabur.com, It has been the preferred choice of consumers when it comes to packaged fruit juices, which is what makes Indias No. 1 Fruit juice brand. It further clarifies the status of that, has been awarded Indias Most Trusted Brand status for four years in a row. This reflects the unique quality of this juice product which after number of years of hard work has not only get to the top place in the massive retail market of India but also retained the top position for four years. To expand internationally, British market offers best opportunity for this Indian brand targeting initially those customers who has some kind of connection with Indian sub-continent. Its unique entry point into the UK market typically based on the Core quality aspects of the ranges of the juices under brand available together with its augmented services such as the theme of Indian-culture with the core product. UK juice market currently worth at $6602.5 million which includes a 10.9% increase in 2009 according to the datamonitor report on UK juice industry profile. With that it is set to increase by 53% to the total value of $10,118.5 million by year 2014 since 2009.(www.lowpriceshopper.co.uk) The leading competitors include Pepsi INC., Del Monte Foods Company and GSK but do not include any of the Asian brands. UK market represents the 26.2% of EU juice market value (www.fdf.org.uk) hence representing an ideal place for Dabur to launch its juice products in this new market and to have access to EU market. Although the existing competitors face intense competition among selling juices but such rivalry tend to reduce due to the international comparisons and differential market shares in other markets. The juice market typically consists of the following juice types: 100% fruit juice from concentrate 100% fruit juice not from concentrate Nectar 30%-99% juice Fruit drink Vegetable juice The best selling type from the above is the 100% fruit juice not from concentrate. Dabur focuses on producing 100% juice not from concentrate and its juice ranges up to 12 covering almost all types of fruits. There is no single competitor in UK who is covering that many types of 100% juice not from concentrate thus making it ideal for this global FMCG to enter and survive the intense UK juice market and establish its juice brand . Its suitability for growth opportunity depends on the penetration of the brand into the market where there is a high concentration of residents of Indian-subcontinent. Its unique selling point is the existing quality which is on top of range of already established juice brands in UK market plus the comprehensive range of juices and the fact that it has been originated in India from a company which is in existence for more than 125 years. UK market is also considered an ideal market for Dabur due to high disposable incomes, and high health consciousness of UK residents couple with the desire of convenience of having quality products at the doorstep. The brand initially fits the criteria of becoming a successful juice brand in UK market but on top of that it ca n also launch similar juice products such as smoothies to compete with other major competitors such as Innocent. High product awareness means that Dabur can emphasize on the core qualities of its juices which circle around the healthy lifestyles. The biggest obstacle of a foreign market is the language barrier which can end up in high promotional cost. But Dabur already promotes its products in English in India and have large number of employees who are already skilled in English language. Thus entering the UK market will not going to increase its product-development or employee-training cost in anyway. There is also high rates of tourism every year which currently takes place in both countries thus there is already a huge sense of collaboration and exchange of cultural values in place. A big Asian community in UK means that Dabur only need to use different pricing strategies for products rather than starting from the scratch point of heavy promotion of its juices. (Economicstimes. indiatimes.com,www.dabur.com) MODE OF ENTRY BY DABUR REAL JUICE Export (Direct or Indirect) Joint Venture Direct Development Figure: International Market Entry Options Looking at the options above, company on the first instance can use the option of exporting its juice products because of low risk it carries but it will prove unsustainable for the company due to its traditional selling techniques which do not include exporting the products or having a joint venture. Company can make best use of Direct Development option by using its current product and customer base at a little extra cost. It gives company the maximum benefits of ultimate control but comes with the maximum cost without sharing it with any partners. This strategy fits best with Dabur international expansion motives which come with long term commitment in the international market. Direct Development also gives Dabur full control of marketing mix. There are number of marketing options available for Dabur to expand its product base in UK to include its popular brand and it does have number of options. Looking at generic strategies it can enter the UK market through Niche plays by having its brand on display in small corner and town shops present in multi-cultural areas of England such as London, Birmingham and Manchester. Due to the limited number of products offered by Dabur at this stage, it suggests that it has high excess capacity available by looking at the range of products it offers in Indian market. On top of that, the work it has done before on the development of brand in UK, it can be proved very successful for the launch of brand. This international expansion also suggests a good strategy to spread the corporate risk. Assignment 2. You are planning to enter this market as a market challenger. Examine your strategic attack options. To challenge existing competitors, further market analysis is being carried out as given below with discussion on strategic attack options: MARKET SEGMENTATION: First steps towards developing a strategic attach option on the competitors is the market segmentation. As a result of market segmentation company will be in a clear position on how to enter the market and reach the customers. Market Segmentation is the process of identifying different group of users within the market. (Croft, 1994). Dabur will need to use following product distribution networks to reach wider customer audience which is also covered by the competitors thus creating a challenging environment for them. WHOLESALERS: When the market for juice are distributed in UK then these one that is wholesalers falls under a category which deals the juice directly or indirectly with customers. DISTRIBUTERS: They are specialized in the task and well known about the local preferences so its easy to get localized feedback, and they again major consumer of juice. AGENTS: Agent has the all information about the local contractors, distributors and retailers etc. So they can enhance the dealing among the retailers. Agents will help to increase the network. RETAILERS: Retailer is the ultimate person who is directly dealing with customers or direct sales the product, he directly interact the buyers and delivered the information to customer about product due to which buyer buy the product there are a lot of dabur retailers are available in London which are already selling different product of Dabur. TARGETING Targeting is the second stage of the Segmentation Targeting and Positioning (STP) process. After the market has been separated into its segments, the marketer will select a segment or series of segments and target it/them. The task of marketing manager is to plan and execute programs that will assure an elite competitive advantage for any organization. According to Czinkota and Ronkainen (1990), this task has two integral part. They are (1) the determining of of specific target markets and (2) marketing management that consists of certain marketing mix elements. Option 1 THINK GLOBAL ACT LOCAL To target its customer base, company initially needs to take into account the habits of its potential customers such as there cultural and attitude needs and which types of products such customers values. Dabur will have competitive advantage here against any other international FMCG who wish to target similar customer base as it is already aware of the cultural needs of the target customer base. However it needs to act very sensitively to attract and retain customers of Indian origin due to intense rivalry and availability of alternative products. Such customer base can be act as a source of promotion within UK market and outside UK market due to large movement of people globally which is turning world in a single market. Option 2 Decentralisation Theodore Levitt has already commented on international movement in 1983 which was published in Harvard Business Review, Ancient differences in national tastes or modes of doing business disappear, the commodity of preferences leads inescapably to the standardisation of products, manufacturing, and the institutions of trade and commercesuccess in world competition turns on efficiencies of production, distribution, marketing and management. To integrate above, company need to ensure some de-centralisation within its organisation. Although it does have its subsidiaries in 7 other countries including UK, but specifically for the launch of product in UK decentralisation of marketing strategy from its Indian based business will be proved very beneficial. The decentralisation of marketing strategy will bring the benefits to Dabur UK such as addressing local needs more effectively but there will be issues in overall brand protection and strategic continuity of the overall business. Option 3 Using web Looking at high internet access, Dabur should also use the web as the major marketing strategy to attract the customer to its product but it will need to ensure that it tries to use same strategic principles in marketing its Product in UK as it does in India to keep the similarities in communication channels. Communication strategy forms the part of promotional aspects of the Dabur Company which alongside other Ps of the market strategy are discussed in the implementation section of this report in further detail. Assessing the options: How the product differs from others? The Dabur Real juice would be different from other juice products of UK. It contain more nutrient and Ayurvedic substances which will make this product differ from others, ayurvedic substances will give much more energy as compared to others. it will target the customers age group between 10 to 35 but its also attract the customers above 35 due to its nutrition and more energetic factors. To further develop strategic attach options, marketing mix analysis is carried out. The marketing mix is the term which is use to explain the compounding maneuver used by businessman for accomplishment of goal through its products and services. Usually its work on particular target group. It refers all 4 Ps which are few of the vital factors which implies the implementation of the product. Product Price Promotion Place Product : We are going to launch fruit juice it comes in different flavour. fruit juice is the core product. The company will launch its 14 variants in two divisions the first division will include the launch of seven variants and critically analysing the success. The company will launch its next seven variants after a period of 6 months. the juice will appeal to the people of all age group as health is no consider as wealth and juice is capable of nourishing people health of different age group. juice contains some added fleavors which will attract the age group of six to ten. Every product has a life cycle. Which start from Introduction than Growth afterward Maturity than after Declining and ultimately withdrawal last time of product. With the help of this product we can forecast the life of our product Real fruit juice. PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE Price : fruit juice is the natural flavoured juice which consists of various nutrients and vitamins. Based on the investment and quality, we fix a good price for selling. The company has launch its products by CREAMING price technique. Price will also help to show the brand and quality which attract the customers. We are using the direct development of the product strategy to launch this product, so we need to recover the cost of production and also good profit margin. Profit is directly related to price of product in any organization. Price is important as it generates revenue. juice price margin will be excellent due to its brand name. Sometimes customer make general perception that low price means low quality. So we cant ignore the customers like or dislike. Customer think negative about the very low price. They think that is inferior good and in case of too high price customer think product is very expensive. Until and unless company calculate the exact cost of goods and services, then c ompany afford more loss on more sale. Place : Initially we target the Indian dominated place in UK. UK is the highly multi cultural country, where we can find the people from every part of the world. Inside the UK London is the highly multi cultural location, south and west London would be most preferable place for launching the product fruit juice. Apart from London, we will also provide the easy accessibility of fruit juice in Birmingham, Manchester etc. We will try to cover all those places where the transport is very economic. Product would be available in many physical stores as well as on virtual stores over the internet. Promotion : Promotion of any product is a vital process of an organization. We should be very careful about the promotion of fruit juice. Now a days we are living in the modern era, it is easy to provide the information about our product inside and outside of the door. Promotion has 4 vital elements: advertising, personal selling, public relation and sales promotion. Advertising is a channel of communication which influences the listeners, viewers and readers directly or indirectly. With the help of advertisement we will make our product fruit juice among the customers. At this time we advertise fruit juice in various ways through television, radios, electronics, print media, banners and template also. We will distribute the free samples among the people. At the time of launching product in the market, we ned to spend a certain amount of money on advertisement. we can show the quality of product through advertising in electronic as well as print media. News papers and magazines contain the advertisement for a long period. It is one of the effective modes of promotion of goods. Free sample distribution and cash discount enhance the awareness of product in the market with the help of this process people will know about the taste and quality of a product, if they like product, they will start buying regularly. Cash discount always attracts the consu mers attention to buy product. We will also promote our fruit juice by good public relation. Daubur already have good image in the eye of Indian customers, so we will try to maintain this brand level in UK. We will also use the technique of individual sale to promote our fruit juice. Middleman in Distribution: We may reach out consumers either directly that is without help of distribution channel, or may be by using more than two distribution channel. Manufacturer to customer: with the help of direct marketing we can sell juice to buyers by personal selling, direct mail, telephone selling and internet etc. To distribute our fruit Juice we make available our product in to the multiplex, malls and give franchise and open new shop in local market. We will deal with agent, wholesaler and retailer to easy accessibility of our fruit juice to customers. Effective channel of distribution boost the sales of product. Critical Reflection Dabur juice is all set to launch itself in highly competitive juice market and ready to compete with well establish firms of juice market that include Pepsi co, Tesco, Tropicana.with Tropicana sharing the largest market share , Dabur juice can face some tough challenges. As discussed earlier the company using the creaming price technique it could go against the success of the juice in UK as some well established juice companies are charging much more nominal price and offering the similar quality. The company is the new entrant in UK juice market and Direct Development can go against the company which has just now moved their step forward by launching itself in UK market. Direct Development has advantage of getting maximum profits but on the other hand there are certain disadvantages as it is too costly for investment and it bears a lot of risk with it. The company will take much time for recovering its cost as the amount for investment is very high.The company will have to invest a huge amount in promotional activities as it has been mention earlier that in order to promote the juice the company will adopt a policy of distribution of free samples among the prospective consumers that could increase the cost and effect the profit of the company in long run. With the presence of well establish firms there is a perfect competition amongst the rivals, which could effect the success of the business in longer period of a time. Lack of Monopoly Market and presence of perfect competation the company will have to develop some unique strategy to tackle the problem of fierce rivalry in juice market. Although the company Dabur already launched in UK, the product of dabur that is juice is first amongst its categories it is a general perception of people that hesitate on shifting to a new product and juice been a new product could face this kind of difficulties. The company has a strategy of targeting the people of Indian origin it may happen that people of Indian origin may be use to local products so the company is in a great risk of failure in UK market. The company has adopted a direct development technique which involves a huge investment that includes setting ups the industries marketing which include a huge cost and in turn increases the profit earning capacity but at the same time the company has to go through high risk of not recovering it costs due to large investment and using direct development technique. BIBLOGRAPHY The Economics Times, 5 Dec, 2010, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/cons-products/fmcg/Dabur-rebrands-Real-juice-eyes-Rs-700-cr-from-food-div/articleshow/7046665.cms The complete directory of BBC, http://www.bbc.co.uk/a-z/ Food and Drink Federation, first half 2010 updated, access from, http://www.fdf.org.uk/publicgeneral/Food_and_drink_exports_firsthalf_2010.pdf Low price shopper, access from, http://www.lowpriceshopper.co.uk/vitamins_nutritionalsupplements/products__keyworduk+juice.html Times of India, access from, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/search.cms Mintel, http://academic.mintel.com/sinatra/oxygen_academic/my_reports/display/id=479966anchor=atom/displaytables/id=479966#section_554384 The Economic Times, 5 Dec, 2010, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/7046665.cms?prtpage=1 http://www.pepsico.co.uk/brands/tropicana Diet Blog, http://www.diet-blog.com/07/the_10_top_selling_brands_in_the_uk.php IBIS World, http://www.ibisworld.co.uk/industry/default.aspx?indid=495 Oxygen.mintel.com, http://oxygen.mintel.com/sinatra/oxygen/display/id=467867/display/id=479966 Oxygen.mintel.com, http://oxygen.mintel.com/sinatra/oxygen/display/id=467867/display/id=479966/display/id=227778 Adcock, D et al (2001), Marketing Principles Practices, 4th edition, Harlow, Pearson Education Limited, p. 120. Czinkota and Ronkainen, International Marketing 5th ed, (the Dryden Press, 1990) pp 17-19 Burca, Fletcher and Brown, International Marketing: An SME Perspective, (Prentice Hall, 2004) pp 476-78 www.Dabur.com Figures has been taken from Data monitor www.marketingteacher.com Doole I and Lowe R, (2001), International Marketing Stretegy, London, Thomson Learning. Gilligan, C and Wilson, M.S. (2003), Strategic Marketing Planning, Oxford, Butterworth-Heinemann. McDonald M, (2003), Marketing Plans how to prepare them, how to use them, Oxford, Butterworth-Heinemann. Croft, Market Segmentation, 2nd ed, Thomas learning 1994,pg 22-33 Wright, Business to Business Marketing, 1st edition, Prentice Hall 2003,pg 10-22 Kotler Keller, Marketing Management, 13th ed, Prentice Hall 2009, pg 696 Hollensen 2007 Global Marketing 4th ed, pg 481 Keegan, J. W. and Mark C. G, (2003), Global Marketing, New Jersey, Pearson Education Inc. Kotlar, P.C. et al, (2001), Principles of Marketing, 3rd edition, Harlow, Pearson Education Limited, p. 76. Kotler P. C, (2003), Marketing Management, New Jersey, Pearson Education. McDonald M, (2003), Marketing Plans how to prepare them, how to use them, Oxford, Butterworth-Heinemann. Micklethwait, J and Wooldridge, A (2000), Future Perfect: The Challenge and Hidden Promise of Globalisation, New York, Crown Business, p.131. www.siakhenn.trepod.com/capita.html

Jaguar Strategic Analysis

Jaguar Strategic Analysis INTRODUCTION: Jaguar Land Rover Cars (JLR), is one of the largest car manufactures around the world. It was founded in 1922 by two motorcycle fanatics i.e. William Walmsley and William Lyons as Jaguar. Its products are luxurious and of high superiority.Jaguar hire above 16,000 individuals, mainly in the UK (Ford Motors, 2009). As we know that Car trading is a very lucrative business, and this is the reason that most car manufactures industries are upgrading their market mix so as to encounter their clients demand and also tie the market race. This is a developed market and there is entry fences forced mostly for the novices. This business definitely, requires sufficient resources and heavy savings as a source of resources, and also solid technological experience. (Thomson 2008) This report is an analysis of assignment 1 in order to identify the Jaguars developments and impact. The report covers critical analysis on the companys operations, structure, external environment, the strategy of the organization regarding its suitability and ability to report the macro-environmental and industry trends, product and service offerings and corporate actions, of the company OVERVIEW: Jaguar main marketing objective is to reinforce its brand fairness and to attain retailing range. The objective requirements are to tie the gap among its customers and its actual performance (Daye VanAuken, 2009). The Jaguar wishes to achieve its social responsibilities and have courage to join in in partnerships with other organizations and NGOs to aid progress; the locale and support the shareholders in building the community relations. As this report is an analysis on my assignemt1. In pervious assignment I have made following findings. The terminologies connected to business environment both micro and macro of the company JAGUAR. Their aims, market share and competitive advantage Business strategy Problems that hinder in the companys success and also suggests the best fit approach for Jaguar Report evaluates and analyses different methodologies like SWOT Analysis, PEST analysis and micro and macro environment of jaguar In my previous work i studied external environment of jaguar in which i studied aboutPESTL,PORTERfive forces andSWOT analysis. According to my study i have made following analysis of jugular company. According to PESTLE analysis Jaguar Company faces political, economic, social, technological and legal issues. According to political aspects company has stable interest in decreasing carbon emissions from vehicles and factories. So; there is increased need for any alternative of fuel sources. Economically people are less motivated to priced cares because jaguar lacks economical cars. Socially people wanted Sports cars are less wanted because they are not environmentally friendly. Technologically Jaguar have need to advance hybrid or electric carsLegallyJaguar should need to acclimatize the method in which company work to put up new rules or laws. According to porter five forces analysis buyers of jaguar want jaguar appliances and engines in their cars. Suppliers of jaguar are the people who deliver parts and machinery. New competition to the jaguar can be from previous car corporations who may investigate the luxury car market, this competition can have from companies like Volkswagen, Ford, and Peugeot. Company can face rivalry from multiple companies like BENZ, BMW, Aston Martin, Porsche, and Bentley Mercedes Benz. Potential clients who may be watching for a high performance car can be persuaded by motorcycles as an alternative.in SWOT analysis Jaguars strength is due to its status for creating a range of top cars with its outstanding workforce. It also has strong position in research and growth. Weakness is lies in the fact that jaguar is not an eco-friendly company so; it may have negative influence on the company. (Duane Michael 2011) Jaguar must some opportunities like they can improve their outstanding standing for quality if they want to keep their competitive edge in the market.(Barney 2010) Threaten Jaguars strategic position is because of growing fuel pr ices, less throwaway income and changing interest. Governmental rules will also threaten Jaguar ANALYSIS:   Ã‚   Suitability: In my previous analysis I cover most of the macro-environment and industry analysis tools here I am recommending the use of strategic option of the organization. Jaguar aspiring development plans can only be reinforced by bringing novelty in innovative engines, products, and environmental technologies. The company has a complex strategy for placing itself as a foremost producer of best vehicles. The companys success is related to its investment in product growth, and is imitated in the RD, strategic emphasis on capital spending, and product design. The strategic position of Jaguar through the earlier examines seem to be strong within their target market. Jaguars aims to keep this position by development and research are certainly, that how they are keeping this position actually. If Jaguar needs to strengthen this position, though, they must expand their image as being ecological. This could be attained through their previously firm research and development. (Gov.uk, 201 7) ACCEPTABILITY: Principal risks. Global economic and geopolitical environment: Jaguar worldwide presence raises its contact to worldwide economic and geopolitical risks and external factors for example the current UK survey to leave the EU, political unpredictability, terrorism, wars, natural tragedies, epidemics, fuel lacks, and labor strikes. Environmental regulations and compliance: Jaguar has many strategies, laws and regulations that cover its environmental features connected to production services and vehicles; for example, fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions. Competitive business efficiency: Jaguar has started programs to enhance operating competence in response to the dynamic external setting including prevailing and developing modest challenges. Brand positioning: it is becoming gradually challenging as the broader motorized market and digital setting develops where new rivals are evolving and prevailing are growing. Product liability and recalls: This may interrupt existing and potential consumers to question about the superiority of Jaguar Land Rover products. Exchange rate fluctuations: This can drive to a important exposure to variations in foreign currency, particularly sales in US Dollars and Chinese Renminbi along with costs in Euro Global expansion: As global sales and industrial track increases company have risks as geopolitical risks, epidemics, natural tragedies, discrepancy and vagueness of economic and governmental rules, the interpretation of native laws and guidelines and taxation systems Distribution channel: A risk to consumer service could worsen. Patent and IP protection:Risks includebreach of intellectual property (i.e. copyright, designs trademarks, patents,). Unethical and prohibited business practices:As company increases global footprint they are bare to the potential risks related with diverse ethical values and cultural norms. (Bacon, 2009) (Full Issue PDF, Volume 41, Issue 4, 2016) FEASIBILITY: Use of estimates and judgments: The planning of financial statements in accordance with IFRS requires the use of definite grave accounting estimations. It also needs management to work out its judgment in the procedure of put on the companys accounting rules. Revenue recognition : It includes the quantities charged to clienteles outside the company and is measured at fair value of the concern net of discounts, receivable , sales incentives, client bonuses and rebates established, which can be recognized at the point of sale. Cost recognition: Expenditures are exploited where suitable in conformity with the policy for internally made intangible assets and signify stores and other manufacturing supplies, worker costs, and other expenditures experienced for product development assumed by the company. Government grants and incentives: Government endowments are known when there is assurance that the company will obey with the pertinent circumstances and the funding will be received. Government grants are documented in the income statement on a methodical basis when the company distinguishes, as expenses, the linked costs that the endowments are envisioned to recompense. Foreign currency: The Company has a practical and performance currency of GBP. Contacts in foreign currencies are noted at the exchange rate prevailing on the date of transaction. Income taxes: they include present and deferred taxes. People and Skills: The essential capabilities within a company can be viewed as extents where the company is very good at and therefore set them separately from the competition. One of Jaguars extremely high qualities is its team of experts and motivated staff. This outstanding staff has a positive attitude on the rest of manufacture, e.g. tasks for example assembly and maintenance of offering sturdy and consistent vehicles, for which Jaguar is famous for. This is also the jaguars vision to produce desirable cars. (Ford Motors, 2009) The companys sustainability vision targets to guarantee their business although replying to worldwide trends and stakeholder requirements. Their strategy will aid to safeguard that sustainability is rooted at each stage of the life cycle of their products and at all stages of business. CHALLENGES: Through analysis I have discover one of the chief problems is Future profitability and the faith of shareholders. Company makes great performance and best vehicles; however, they do not want to have an important environmental outline. As a rising company, its more imperative than ever that we have a complete strategy prepared to decrease impact on the environment and exploit the optimistic welfares that business can bring (Wallace and Tovey, 2017) RECOMMENDATIONS To face the challenges we must react efficiently to numerous developing worldwide trends that are influencing the future of companys business. Away from the influence of products, supply chain operations and, we have a broader duty to provide benefits to the society and the economy. Companys Global Corporate Social Responsibility strategy helps to improve solutions for social and economic challenges. Areas of focus consist of proceeding knowledge by building engineering and science skills, emerging young engineers and backup technology businesspersons. (Pierini, Eckert, 2008) CONCLUSION This report has well assessed Jaguars strategic position and also known growing technologies and their influence on this position. The external environment was assessed and it showed Jaguars position in its related market zone. Five forces, PESTL and SWOT analyses were carried out to show how strong Jaguars place in their market was. Generally, Jaguar is very securely working as a leader in their market. REFERENCES: Jaguar (2013) JAGUAR[online] available from http://www.jaguar.co.uk [2013] Thomson, R 2008, Tata Motors completes acquisition of Jaguarà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã… ¸, Press release Ford Motors 2009, à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã… ¸Tata Motors enter into Definitive Agreement with Ford for purchase of Jaguar Land Roverà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã… ¸, Press release Daye D, Van Auken B 2009. The Benefits of Corporate Brands. From (Retrieved 15 July 2009). Duane, I, Michael, A 2011, Understanding business strategy: concepts and cases: Mason, South-Western Cengage Learning Barney, J 2010, Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage, Journal of Management, 17, pp.99 120 Bacon, N 2009, Competitive advantage through human resource management: best practice or core competencies? à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã… ¸ Human Relations, Vol.4, pp. 361 372 Huselid, A 2006, Strategic human resources management: where do we go from here? à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã… ¸ Journal of Management, Vol. 32, pp. 898 925 Gross, S 2009, End-of-life vehicles management in Europe: driving the change: Cases of Sweden and Germany. IIEE, Lund University Pierini, M Eckert, V 2008, Strategy-based approach to eco-design: Application to an automotive componentà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã… ¸, International Journal of Vehicle Design, vol. 6, pp 156-17 Gov.uk. (2017). Jaguar Land Rover: manufacturing more resource efficient cars Case study GOV.UK. [online] Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/case-studies/jaguar-land-rover-manufacturing-more-resource-efficient-cars [Accessed 21 Jul. 2016]. Wallace, T. and Tovey, A. (2017). UK firms from engineers to banks struggle to fill skills shortage. [online] The Telegraph. Available at: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/04/uk-firms-engineers-banks-struggle-fill-skills-shortage/ [Accessed 10 Mar. 2017]. Full Issue PDF, Volume 41, Issue 4. (2016). Fisheries, 41(4), pp.157-212.

Istanbul: Memories and the City, by Prhan Pamuk Essay -- Yahya Kemal, A

Orhan Pamuk’s Istanbul: Memories and the City is an iridescent evocation of Istanbul’s fate, history, and cultural diversity recollected in the form of memories, allowing the readers to connect with Pamuk’s life experiences. The above is made possible through the use of both, past as well as present, which co-exist as a centerpiece in this memoir. To begin with, memories add a flavour of perceived thought about what the past holds dear to us and are therefore synonymous to history, helping to retell the author’s story, who wishes to convert each and every reader into an artist and commentator of the history of Istanbul. History is something written by ordinary people based on the biases of available data and at times, it is this ideology which casts a magic, stimulating us to revisit the past through our memories. Pamuk showcases history using an individualistic approach, interpreting Istanbul by means of his own thoughts which are original, and correct the existing incongruences put forward by other writers during that period of time. In all, the narrator takes the readers as a ‘tourist guide’ through the by lanes and shadowy corridors of Istanbul, motivating them to conceive their thoughts about the place. Memories can be defined as all of the precious moments which were lived by the author. He portrays a new instance every time, inviting the readers’ to indulge themselves in a ceaseless wave of emotions and experiences which have skillfully been exposed till the very end of this text. For example, Orhan’s memory about religious beliefs wherein he imagines God as a female stereotype wearing a white scarf, describing Her as a rare sight around human beings. Looking at the following lines, â€Å"Even so, whenever I am in a crowd, ... ...eal football matches using marbles, giving each piece a name with respect to the best player of the match. Also, they would constantly comment on the game, imitating how it’s done on live television. This not only showed their attachment to the game in particular, but also to each other. Orhan always imagined the atmosphere to be pulsating, and it was this excitement which transforms into reality, thereby taking the form of memories. Works Cited †¢ Istanbul: Memories and the City by Orhan Pamuk, Published: 2005 †¢ Matossian, Nouritza. "He's Still the Top Dog in Turkey." The Observer. Guardian News and Media, 17 Apr. 2005. Web. 20 Oct. 2013. . †¢ "Mirroring Istanbul." Global Perspectives on Orhan Pamuk. Ed. Mehnaz M. Afridi and David M. Buyze. N.p.: n.p., n.d. N. pag. Print.

Huckleberry Finn :: essays research papers

Many people think that Huckleberry Finn is a racist novel and they have even gone as far as banning the novel from certain schools. They base this view on the fact that the word â€Å"nigger† is used very often and they see the black people being portrayed in a degrading way to show that they are inferior to the white society. Contrary to this idea, Huckleberry Finn is not a racist novel. Mark Twain actually attacks racism by satirizing the lifestyle of the white people and shows that they have no reason at all to think that they are better than the blacks. This satirizing of the white people is effectively seen in the portrayal of the king and the duke. Mark Twain starts to mock the king and the duke as soon as they are first introduced in the novel. Their appearance gives a negative impression right from the start. The king is described as having, â€Å"an old battered-up slouch hat on, and a greasy blue woolen shirt,† and he’s wearing, â€Å"ragged old blue jeans britches stuffed into his boot tops.†(Pg. 121) The duke is described as much the same. This first impression makes us feel as if these men are scum and we don’t have a very good perception of them. The second thing that these men do also is used to mock society in two ways. The first man (the duke) makes up a story that he was actually the Duke of Bridgewater. He said that he was the son of the infant duke that was ignored to take over a position. Not to be outdone, the second man (the king) makes up a story that he was actually the rightful King of France. Mark Twain uses Huck Finn to show what he thinks of these two men. â€Å"It didnâ€℠¢t take me to long to make up my mind that these liars warn’t no kings nor dukes at all, but just low-down humbugs and frauds.†(Pg.125) These men are putting up a false front just like society does and Mark Twain shows through Huck that he can see right through this false front. The second thing that is mocked is the fact that these people pretend that they are royalty. Jim wonders why these men carry on so much and Huck tells him, â€Å" . . .because it’s in the breed. I reckon they’re all alike,† and he also says, â€Å"all kings is mostly rapscallions, as fur as I can make out.

Differences between Genders Not Created by Social Conditioning

This paper intends to observe males in social settings, as well as, in the workplace. In addition to that, it will try to identify the differences between opposite genders in terms of those not created from social conditioning. Finally, it will also enumerate social conditions promoting gender inequality that adversely affects the society. Observations The following are some of the ones I noticed among the males in social settings and in the workplace:In the office, there was a man who didn’t care how excellent the result of his work will turn out to be, what he is focused on is accomplishing is (Marriage Missions International n. p. ). It doesn’t really matter to him if his colleagues will approve of his work just as long as it is done (Marriage Missions International n. p. ). Another man speaks of his desired promotion and salary increase which shows how important money and power are to him (Marriage Missions International n. p. ).Finally, there was a man at the party who did not seem to care how badly ironed his clothes were (Marriage Missions International n. p. ). His hair was even too messy to look at (Marriage Missions International n. p. ). It is clearly evident that he cares less about his appearance (Marriage Missions International n. p. ). Differences Based on the observations carried out, the differences among genders which are not brought about by social conditioning are the following: First of all is preference.The â€Å"outward show† of an individual is not taught by somebody he or she is with. This depends on what the person wants or desires. Another is known as innate ability/attitude. A man was not trained or taught to want money or fame, this is instilled in him. It’s an attitude he already has. The same is true with his performance; a man may be innately lazy and not motivated to work excellently. Social Conditions The social conditions that may promote gender inequality are the following: The first is gender role s.This may create adverse effects on the society because gender roles are behaviors which a particular culture or group of people expects from people (Net Industries, LLC n. p. ). Therefore, if a certain person acts contrary to whatever expectations their group may have then it creates chaos and bias from these people (Net Industries, LLC n. p. ). For example, in certain cultures only the men/husband are expected to work and earn for the entire family and so if there is anybody female/wife is the one earning/working, this somehow creates bias from the culture/society they belong to (Net Industries, LLC n.p. ).The problem with this is that the women may tend to be abused and may be looked down upon because of their expected role (Net Industries, LLC n. p. ). Another is based on â€Å"materialist theories† which means that genders are linked to the economic output of both genders (Eitzen et. al. 251). Here, women are constantly discriminated upon because in the past women are p aid much less than men (Eitzen et. al. 251). The society is affected believing that up to now this is still the case (Eitzen et. al. 251).

Business Forecasting Assignment Operations Essay

Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the knowledge gained to project future business conditions so that decisions can be made today that will aid in the achievement of established goals. Forecasting plays a crucial role in today’s uncertain global marketplace. Forecasting is traditionally either qualitative or quantitative, with each offering specific advantages and disadvantages. Qualitative and Quantitative Forecasting TechniquesForecasting can be classified into qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative techniques are subjective or judgmental and are based on estimates and opinions. The Delphi technique, a common form of qualitative forecasting, allows experts to create an effective forecast under conditions of extreme uncertainty. Time’s series forecasting, a quantitative technique, uses a statistical analysis of past sales in order to effectively predict future outcomes, but can be limited under conditions of uncertainty (Chase, 2003, p.364). Business forecasting can be used in a wide variety of contexts, and by a wide variety of businesses. For example, effective forecasting can determine sales based on attendance at a trade show, or the customer demand for products and services (Business and Economic Forecasting, p.1). One of the most important assumptions of business forecasters is that the past acts as an important guide for the future. It is important to note that forecasters must consider a number of new information, including rapidly changing economic conditions and globalization, when creating business forecasts based on past sales. Globalization and economic slowdown has made businesses subject to a great deal of uncertainty. In this time of rapid change, economies worldwide change rapidly, new markets open up and old ones change, and demand for products is often uncertain. As such, businesses must be flexible and adaptable in the types of methods that they use to forecast future sales (Chase, 2003, p.472). In an ever-changing global marketplace, organizations are constantly coming up against unusual and novel situations. It is in these situations that modern methods of business forecasting can be especially useful. Modern  forecasting methods are usually grouped into two main categories: qualitative methods, and quantitative methods. Qualitative analysis includes the intuitive and knowledge-based approach as discussed earlier. The decision maker reviews all of the information available, and then makes an estimated forecast. Quantitative techniques are used mostly when qualitative information is not available. In contrast, qualitative techniques are based on an analysis of data (Namvar, 2000, p.8). Delphi Forecasting MethodQualitative forecasting techniques are: executive committee, the Delphi method, and surveys of the sales force, surveys of customers, historical analogy, and market research. The objective of most Delphi applications is the reliable and creative exploration of ideas or the production of suitable information for decision-making. The Delphi Method is based on a structured process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts by means of a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback (Chase, 2003, P471). The Delphi method is a variation of the executive committee approach. But the interaction is indirect, iterative and structured. The basic premise of Delphi method is to identify a group of experts and each of them are given a set of questions or issues, and asked to respond. After a given amount of time, the responses are sent to a coordinator or monitoring group that does not participate in the earlier stages of the Delphi processes. This group then feeds back the responses to other members of the group, while never giving away the identity of the response. The experts are then asked to respond again, after reviewing the responses of other respondents. This process may continue until a consensus is reached among the group. The group may be united to form a final consensus (Namvar, 2000, p.8). Time Series Forecasting MethodTime series techniques are the most popular quantitative method. These techniques use statistical methods for projecting from historical data. Quantitative techniques are preferred when appropriate data are available. The main assumption is that the historical pattern will continue into the future. The two main types of time series forecasting are average smoothing and exponential smoothing. The moving average is simply a  series of arithmetic averages. Predicting sales for next year is simple. The actual sales for a certain number of years is added, and then divided by the number of years used to get the moving average. A weighted moving average is obtained by assigning a specific weight to previous years. The sum of all weights must equal one. Recent years are given a higher weight (Namvar, 2000, p.13). Exponential smoothing is simply a subtype of the weighted moving average. A new forecast is a weighted sum of actual variables (usually sales) in the current year and the weighted forecast of the variable for that period. It has the advantage of being relatively easy to compute. In contrast the moving average method is quick, cheap, and easy to use, but does not easily take into account variations based on seasonal effects and cycles (Namvar, 2000, p.14). Both the Delphi technique and Time series forecasting are valuable forecasting tools in the right circumstance. The Delphi technique is useful for short-term forecasts. This ability is contingent upon the familiarity of experts with specific issues (Namvar, 2000, p.8). One of the major problems with the Delphi technique, as with all other qualitative techniques, is identifying good employees to form expert opinions and judgments, and then getting these experts to agree on a forecast (Namvar, 2000, p.9). Given the limitations of qualitative techniques, quantitative forecasting is usually preferred where there is enough past data (Namvar, 2000, p.12). In conditions of uncertainty, the Delphi technique offers a great deal flexibility. Using the Delphi technique, experts in a field can often come to a creative and insightful consensus. In contrast, time series forecasting may be less useful under conditions of extreme uncertainty because of its qualitative nature. When new conditions arise, it may be difficult to predict future sales based on past sales when conditions were more certain. Therefore, the Delphi technique is often a more valuable tool for business forecasting during conditions of uncertainty. Firstlogic Inc., The Company manufactures information quality and postal automation software that helps companies ensure the data they are storing and adding to their corporate databases is clean, accurate and reliable. More than 6,000 customers around the world use Firstlogic products. (www.firstlogic.com). The recent global economic slowdown and increased uncertainty in many facets of business, have caused organizations to rethink their priorities and strategies. Like any other companies, My company was forced to look well ahead in order to plan their investments, launch new products and services, devise new ways to develop and leverage human capital and so on. All key decisions related to these activities are derived from a sales forecast, which is the most critical and difficult area of the management. Forecasting can allow businesses to predict sales, and thus determine a wide variety of business expenses. Firstlogic heavily relies on quantitative methods for business forecasting based on several factors like degree of accuracy, investment decisions, time horizon to forecast, capital investment decision, product changes, style, quality, price changes, labor problems, available data and information and position of products in its life cycle to forecast the future sales. Firstlogic use information on past sales and times to help determine demand for products and services, effectively forecasting the specific products/services that would release to market at a given point in time. Despite the effectiveness of quantitative forecasting tools, the company has had less success with these methods in short term forecasts. Given the high degree of uncertainty in today’s marketplace, qualitative forecasting techniques like the Delphi technique may help Firstlogic to better-forecast future sales. Conclusion In conclusion, business forecasting methods must be used in order to fit current conditions of uncertainty. Delphi technique and time series forecasting both are valuable forecasting tools when used in the right circumstance. The Delphi technique is useful for short-term forecasts; therefore, it is often a more valuable tool for business forecasting during conditions of uncertainty. References Business and Economic Forecasting. Retrieved November 4, 2005, fromhttp://www.sbeusers.csuhayward.edu/~acassuto/econ3551/summary/chapter6.ht